Jakob Nielsen, Ph.D., is a retired principal and co-founder (with Dr. Donald A. Norman) of the Nielsen Norman Group. Jakob established the "discount usability engineering" movement for fast and cheap improvements of user interfaces and invented the heuristic evaluation method.
Anything done by more than 90% of big
sites becomes a de-facto design standard that must be followed unless
an alternative design achieves 100% increased usability.
Specialized Internet applications will return to provide richer UIs than are possible in browsers, but browsers will remain and new, smaller devices will arise, so content and features must work across three levels of sophistication. WAP will fail.
Epinions and Google join
eBay in maintaining independent ratings of the quality of products,
websites, and auction sellers, leading to better customer service
and helping users make informed buying decisions.
Most streaming video is useless; instead use higher-quality downloadable clips and short segments that can be chosen from a menu. All multimedia needs plain-page previews.
Partitioning the Web into N unlinked or otherwise isolated parts will reduce its overall value by a
factor of N. A proprietary AOL instant messaging system will be worth only 4% of the full potential, and 1/3 will be completely lost.